The Transfer Portal Is Not a Hedge
How athletes should think about the transfer portal
As many of you know, the rules around athletes transferring schools have loosened over the years. Players can move more freely now. Though on the face of it it looks like optionality, the reality is more complex.
I’m going to keep the monetary aspect out of this for clarity.
WHAT IT ACTUALLY IS
The simplest explanation is, the transfer portal is a database. You enter your name, and it signals to programs that you’re available to talk.
That’s it.
It’s important to understand that entering the portal is a form of self-listing, not an offer from another school. It’s not a guarantee that you will land at another program, or even back at the program you’re currently at.
SOME BASIC RULES WITHOUT GETTING INTO THE WEEDS
Under NCAA rules, other programs generally cannot recruit you until you’ve been permissibly entered into the portal.
Entering the portal can jeopardize your place in your current program (roster spot, athletic aid, etc).
Most scholarships are renewed year to year, not guaranteed for four years. Entering gives the school a clean, uncomplicated reason not to renew if they desire.
There are windows. Specific days tied to your sport’s season when you’re allowed to enter.
Many who enter the portal never land at a new school, or return to college.
Of those who do land somewhere, most end up at a program equal to or below where they started. The portal is not a reliable upgrade machine.
**I recommend researching your specific sport. Here’s a good overall analysis Link →
Entering doesn’t automatically create a flood of options. It opens the possibility of them.
The roster math for coaches has also changed in recent years. In some sports they tend to build rosters season to season using the same portal you’re counting on as your exit.
Staying is often the safer bet — for your admission status, your roster spot, and your scholarship.
The portal cuts both ways. It’s more like a bet than an insurance policy.
HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT
Commitment with an exit already planned is dangerous. Let’s say you’re in high school, and you’re damn good at your sport. Awesome. The problem is, your recruiting process isn’t going as planned.
Some top programs recruited, then dropped you in the process. You find yourself considering programs that are solid, but not what you were projecting, or hoping for. So, you commit to one of them knowing you’re good enough to play at a more elite program.
This scenario is common.
Often, athletes commit with the mindset that they will go to option B with the intent of transferring to desire A after a year at option B.
Philosophically and mentally this is not an ideal way to think about it.
It’s not dangerous because plans change. It’s dangerous because your mindset changes. A “placeholder” mentality can show up in practice, in body language, in how you interact with coaches and teammates. They will likely feel it when you’re half-in. Even if you’re good at lying, you’re still living a lie.
As soon as anyone believes you’re not invested in them, they’ll stop investing in you.
Optionality you haven’t earned isn’t freedom. While in college, there’s a difference between being aware that other programs would love to have you, and you assuming you could leave if things don’t work out. The first is leverage. The second is a story you’re telling yourself.
There are ways to discover your potential value to programs you prefer (outside of some obvious things like having a record-breaking season, etc.). However, you want to tiptoe around how you find this out.
You can’t speak to other programs directly until you’re in the portal. But, you can still learn your market value before you enter it. People talk.
Remember, the portal is a resignation before employment.
The portal gives your value a market. It does not create that value. It doesn’t build anything for you.
One athlete spends years developing. Climbing. Building leverage.
The other spends those years frustrated, waiting for something to change.
The portal doesn't care which one you are. But everyone else will.
You exercise the option because it’s the highest-value decision available to you. Not because you’re tired, or bored, or upset about a depth chart.
Coaches can often tell the difference between someone leaving from a position of strength and another exiting from fear or frustration. They recruit accordingly.
A player leaving because they know there’s a litany of programs that would love to have them gets a very different reception than a player leaving because he’s buried on the bench, or having a not-so-solid season.
If you’re going to make your desire to transfer known, do it from a position of strength.
Your school doesn’t owe you, and you don’t owe it. A program can move on from you without hesitation the moment it stops making sense for them. A scholarship doesn’t guarantee a future roster spot, and a roster spot does not guarantee a renewed scholarship.
I see no problem in operating the same way. Your job isn’t blind devotion. Your job is to keep increasing your own value.
You maintain, or better yet increase your value to your current team, you’ve increased your potential value to other teams.
WHO’S DONE IT RIGHT
Though he never transferred, Arch Manning (current University of Texas quarterback) redshirted his first year. He then played backup the following season. He didn’t start until year three (technically his junior year).
He was the top recruit in the country coming out of high school. He almost certainly could have started as a true freshman elsewhere. And, if he entered the portal there’s little question he would have landed a new gig in a matter of minutes.
I’m aware that Arch is an anomaly in almost every way possible. If anyone in college football has had the resources and the team around him to make intelligent decisions, it’s him. Yet, even he (the athlete with more apparent optionality than almost anyone) chose development, patience, and continuity over immediate playing time.
At the end of the day the best strategy is to become valuable, wherever you land.
As Dr. Feynman said, “the easiest person to fool is yourself.”
So, don’t convince yourself that better options are going to arrive out of the blue. Go all in where you’re at. Let optionality find you. And if it does, feel free to leverage the shit out of it.
Onward and upward!
—Ryan
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